USD/CAD plummets below key daily support as Fed's Powell rules out 75bp hike

• USD/CAD smashes below daily support on Fed Powell. 
• The Fed expects to hike rates by 50bps at the next two meetings, not 75bps, US yields and the US dollar are falling. 

At 1.2754, USD/CAD was pressured through a key daily support area following the Federal Reserve and during the press conference. The pair has fallen from a high of 1.2853 to score a post Fed low of 1.2785 so far. 

The hike was hawkish and Fed futures are pricing in a higher chance of a 50 basis point hike at the June meeting. 77% priced for 50bps and 23% for a 75 basis point hike. Interest rates futures also suggest a 94% probability of an effective fed funds rate of at least 2.75% at year-end.

The Fed anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate as the central banks if highly attentive to inflation risks. 

A press release has also been published with the plans for reducing the size of the balance sheet. 

The Committee intends to reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings over time in a predictable manner primarily by adjusting the amounts reinvested of principal payments received from securities held in the System Open Market Account (SOMA). Beginning on June 1, principal payments from securities held in the SOMA will be reinvested to the extent that they exceed monthly caps.

For Treasury securities, the cap will initially be set at $30 billion per month and after three months will increase to $60 billion per month. The decline in holdings of Treasury securities under this monthly cap will include Treasury coupon securities and, to the extent that coupon maturities are less than the monthly cap, Treasury bills.

For agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, the cap will initially be set at $17.5 billion per month and after three months will increase to $35 billion per month.

Fed Powell's presser has sunk the US dollar further as the chairman says 75bps is not something that the Fed is looking at and that it will be 50bps at the next two meetings if they see what they expect to see. USD/CAD is falling:

USD/CAD technical analysis

As per the prior session's analysis, USD/CAD Price Analysis: Bears have moved in to test bullish commitments at critical daily support, the current price action gives a prima facie bias to the bearish scenarios:

The price is mitigating the imbalance of the prior bullish impulse and could be on the way to 1.2720.