AUD/JPY Price Analysis: MACD turns most bearish in three months ahead of the key day

• AUD/JPY stays pressured near the seven-week low, extends bearish move established since September 14.
• 100-day EMA can offer immediate support during further declines.
• 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and July low may restrict further downside.
• Preliminary readings of September month Aussie CBA PMIs, Retail Sales are in the spotlight.

AUD/JPY drops to 75.20 during the early Wednesday morning in Asia. The quote has been declining for the last seven consecutive days and is pushing MACD histogram towards flashing the most bearish signals since late-June.

However, nearness to the 100-day EM and cautious sentiment ahead of the Commonwealth Bank’s (CBA) PMI figures and Preliminary Retail Sales for September month restrict the pair’s further moves.

Although forecasts favor further weakness in the key economics, which in turn may extend AUD/JPY south-run, the recent recovery in the coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in Victoria may help Retail Sales to offer a surprise.

In that case, the pair’s bounce can aim for August month’s low around 75.60 ahead of challenging 50-day EMA near 76.00.

On the contrary, downbeat outcomes from the scheduled data may break the 75.00 threshold to challenge the 100-day EMA level of 74.87.

During the worst-case scenario, AUD/JPY bears might not hesitate to challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its March-August upside and July month’s low surrounding 74.10 and 73.90.

AUD/JPY daily chart

Trend: Bearish