US: NFP likely to print 185k in October – Deutsche Bank

The analysis team at Deutsche Bank suggests that the market consensus is for a 200k reading of NFP following that softer-than-expected 134k last month.

Key Quotes

“Our US economists expect a 185k print, but believe that risks are to the downside due to the hurricane disruptions. Our colleagues expect the unemployment rate to remain steady at 3.7% (with risks it rounds down to 3.6%) while they expect average hourly earnings to rise +0.2% mom and to a new post-crisis high of 3.1% yoy - the highest since early 2009. This represents a jump of almost 40bps from the September reading which is largely due to base effects from October 2017, when earnings plunged after Hurricane Harvey, Irma and Maria boosted September 2017’s print.”