UK: Agreement on the divorce bill coming? – TDS

UK Prime Minister May and European Commissioner President Juncker meet for lunch and are expected to approach an agreement on the divorce bill, Irish border, and citizens’ rights, according to analysts at TDS.

Key Quotes

“The core conclusions were leaked last week, and we note that while big-picture agreement has materialised, some fine-tuning might still be required. EC President Tusk has said that the divorce bill and Irish border must be resolved by today in order for EU leaders to approve Phase 2 talks at their Dec 14/15 meetings. Any disagreement (or last-minute postponement of the lunch) will jeopardise this, with sharp market reaction. A joint publication on the issues would be a positive signal of near-certain progress. Also out, after dipping into below-50 territory in September, we expect November’s construction PMI to build slightly on October’s gains, rising to 51.0.”

“EUR: EU finance ministers meet to elect the next president of the Eurogroup, as Dijsselbloem’s back-to-back 2.5-year terms come to an end in January. This is the first of a series of high-profile European institutional leadership races. There are four candidates, from Portugal, Luxembourg, Slovakia, and Latvia. Portugal’s Centeno was the consensus candidate, but Slovakia’s last-minute entry with Kazimir will make the vote more interesting.”