EUR/USD: a choppy US session so far, where next?

Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1931, down -0.11% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.1970 and low at 1.1915.

EUR/USD was boosted overnight by not only EZ CPI that finalised at 1.5% y/y and with 1.3% core y/y beating 1.2% expected, but also ECB's Hansson was hitting the wires and argued that the Central Bank's next move should be a recalibration of stimulus without caution in moving towards such a policy. 

The price area of 1.1914 in late Asian markets was picked up by the bulls in a decisive climb all the way to 1.1969 the high. However, the US dollar bulls took back control down to 1.1941 in a fade and subsequent bids only made for lower highs in a chop before the bears sunk their teeth into the market. Supply took the price back to 1.1922 where bids moved into the 1.1930's where the pair oscillates at the time of writing. 

EUR/USD longs crowded, positioning starting to look elevated? - Scotiabank

For the week ahead, the FOMC is the main focus for markets, but while many anticipate a communication over the balance sheet reduction, (bullish dollar), dollar bulls might want to approach the event with forethought with regards to the dot plot: 

Why this Fed meeting won’t be a non-event - ING

"Don't rule out a dots downgrade: With just one hike priced in by the end of 2018, the market's view on interest rates is still worlds apart from the Fed's June projections, which penciled in 100bp of rate hikes over the next 18 months," explained analysts at ING Bank. 

EUR/USD levels

Analysts at Scotiabank are neutral/bullish in EUR/USD, arguing that the bull trend momentum has moderated significantly on the short-term studies. "While the broader uptrend remains intact and well-supported by bullish DMI signals on the daily and weekly studies, we would be concerned but EURUSD weakness below the low/mid 1.18 area as this could signal scope for a more significant retreat in the market," the analysts explained, noting that  support is 1.1850, resistance is 1.1965 and that major resistance remains at 1.2050."