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4 May 2016
NZD: Commodity price index slipped by a further 0.8% in April - ANZ
Con Williams, Agri Economist at ANZ, notes that the ANZ Commodity Price Index fell by a further 0.8% in April to be back 16.8% y/y.
Key Quotes
“Renewed NZD/USD strength saw NZD prices decline 2.8% in April. Since the start of the year world prices in the index have fallen 1.6%, but NZD prices were down 5.7% over the same period. Commodity prices are roughly one-third below early 2014 peaks in world price terms, but are around one quarter below historic peaks in NZD terms.
Dairy prices continued to weigh heavily in April. The likes of US cheese inventory levels have recently hit 10-year highs, meaning more of this product could start seeping into tradable supply.
Non-dairy prices declined 0.3%, reversing some of the improvement seen over the last two months. In NZD terms it was the second consecutive decline with export prices falling 2.2%.
It was a mixed performance outside of dairy, with prices for beef (-2.8%), venison (-3.0%), logs (-1.4%) and wool (-0.3%) all lower. However, a good proportion of the beef, venison and log softness will be seasonal.
Aluminium prices have improved with the broad-based rally in industrial metals due to an improved near-term economic outlook for China and associated restocking.”
Key Quotes
“Renewed NZD/USD strength saw NZD prices decline 2.8% in April. Since the start of the year world prices in the index have fallen 1.6%, but NZD prices were down 5.7% over the same period. Commodity prices are roughly one-third below early 2014 peaks in world price terms, but are around one quarter below historic peaks in NZD terms.
Dairy prices continued to weigh heavily in April. The likes of US cheese inventory levels have recently hit 10-year highs, meaning more of this product could start seeping into tradable supply.
Non-dairy prices declined 0.3%, reversing some of the improvement seen over the last two months. In NZD terms it was the second consecutive decline with export prices falling 2.2%.
It was a mixed performance outside of dairy, with prices for beef (-2.8%), venison (-3.0%), logs (-1.4%) and wool (-0.3%) all lower. However, a good proportion of the beef, venison and log softness will be seasonal.
Aluminium prices have improved with the broad-based rally in industrial metals due to an improved near-term economic outlook for China and associated restocking.”