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10 Feb 2016
Can Yellen help create peace in a market in full battle mode? – Deutsche Bank
Research Team at Deutsche Bank, suggests that Yellen is set to deliver her semi-annual testimony to the House Financial Services Committee today at 3.00pm GMT (although her prepared remarks may be released earlier) before answering questions from lawmakers.
Key Quotes
“It’s likely that much of what she says today will be repeated in her speech tomorrow at the same time to the Senate, with only the Q&A sessions different. We clearly have long thought that any rate rise in this cycle is a policy error given our growth and financial system concerns but the Fed are probably nowhere near to acknowledging that they are now on hold for an indefinite period.
Yellen can however give the market hope today that the committee is acknowledging the worrying signs from both financial markets and the global economy and take a step closer to a cleaner dovish stance. That would certainly help if for no other reason than it would halt the dollar bull market (notwithstanding the recent sell-off) which has caused problems with commodities, EM, China and encouraged shrinking global dollar liquidity. However we won't get such a turnaround in one speech. If it happens it's likely to be a multi month story.”
Key Quotes
“It’s likely that much of what she says today will be repeated in her speech tomorrow at the same time to the Senate, with only the Q&A sessions different. We clearly have long thought that any rate rise in this cycle is a policy error given our growth and financial system concerns but the Fed are probably nowhere near to acknowledging that they are now on hold for an indefinite period.
Yellen can however give the market hope today that the committee is acknowledging the worrying signs from both financial markets and the global economy and take a step closer to a cleaner dovish stance. That would certainly help if for no other reason than it would halt the dollar bull market (notwithstanding the recent sell-off) which has caused problems with commodities, EM, China and encouraged shrinking global dollar liquidity. However we won't get such a turnaround in one speech. If it happens it's likely to be a multi month story.”