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27 Jan 2016
Key events ahead - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted the key events ahead and the immediate implications in the Aussie CPI results.
Key Quotes:
"Australia’s market comedy is mostly centred on its surreal employment numbers and the inability of the RBA to recognise it is one of the only banks not doing a silly walk. It’s hard to say if Q4 CPI data this morning change that picture or not. Headline was 0.4% q-o-q vs. 0.3% expectations, and y-o-y rose from 1.5% to 1.7%; trimmed mean was 0.6% q-o-q and 2.1% y-o-y; and weighted median was 0.5% and 1.9% y-o-y. In short, not the deflationary picture being seen elsewhere, but if the RBA thinks Australia can avoid it altogether it is really having a laugh.
Next today we hear from the ECB’s Lane, the BoE’s Bailey, and then the ECB’s Mersch and Lautenschlaeger, followed by the BoE’s Shafik. After that it is US new home sales (seen up 500K) ahead of the headline act, Monty Python’s Flying Circus the FOMC.
Overnight we also have the RBNZ, where the market is not expecting any change in rates from 2.50%. While the RBA have been playing the ‘straight man’ among central banks, the RBNZ have ventured into black comedy with their repeated efforts to hike rates, which are then painfully aborted. Let’s see if there is any development in the script this month."
Key Quotes:
"Australia’s market comedy is mostly centred on its surreal employment numbers and the inability of the RBA to recognise it is one of the only banks not doing a silly walk. It’s hard to say if Q4 CPI data this morning change that picture or not. Headline was 0.4% q-o-q vs. 0.3% expectations, and y-o-y rose from 1.5% to 1.7%; trimmed mean was 0.6% q-o-q and 2.1% y-o-y; and weighted median was 0.5% and 1.9% y-o-y. In short, not the deflationary picture being seen elsewhere, but if the RBA thinks Australia can avoid it altogether it is really having a laugh.
Next today we hear from the ECB’s Lane, the BoE’s Bailey, and then the ECB’s Mersch and Lautenschlaeger, followed by the BoE’s Shafik. After that it is US new home sales (seen up 500K) ahead of the headline act, Monty Python’s Flying Circus the FOMC.
Overnight we also have the RBNZ, where the market is not expecting any change in rates from 2.50%. While the RBA have been playing the ‘straight man’ among central banks, the RBNZ have ventured into black comedy with their repeated efforts to hike rates, which are then painfully aborted. Let’s see if there is any development in the script this month."