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3 Aug 2015
AUD/USD could test 0.69 in 12-month – Rabobank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, believes the pair could visit the 0.69 handle in a year’s view.
Key Quotes
“On a 12 mth view the AUD has fallen almost 22% vs. the USD”.
“The RBA has made no secret of its view that the AUD has been overvalued for a prolonged period”.
“In the policy statement that accompanied the July 7 meeting, the RBA commented that “further depreciation seems both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices”.
“The fact that the Federal Reserve has been preparing the market for a hike in US rates has been instrumental in guiding the AUD lower vs. the USD”.
“However, we do not forecast a Fed hike until December and this could temper the pace of USD appreciation”.
“Assuming the RBA remains on a dovish path, we expect AUD/USD to head towards 0.69 on a 12 mth view and would view upticks in AUD/USD as selling opportunities”.
Key Quotes
“On a 12 mth view the AUD has fallen almost 22% vs. the USD”.
“The RBA has made no secret of its view that the AUD has been overvalued for a prolonged period”.
“In the policy statement that accompanied the July 7 meeting, the RBA commented that “further depreciation seems both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices”.
“The fact that the Federal Reserve has been preparing the market for a hike in US rates has been instrumental in guiding the AUD lower vs. the USD”.
“However, we do not forecast a Fed hike until December and this could temper the pace of USD appreciation”.
“Assuming the RBA remains on a dovish path, we expect AUD/USD to head towards 0.69 on a 12 mth view and would view upticks in AUD/USD as selling opportunities”.