UK PMIs to keep the Pound somewhat supported – Commerzbank

The UK PMIs are also on the agenda today. Economists at Commerzbank analyze how the figures could impact the Pound Sterling (GBP).

PMIs likely to confirm the BoE

Although the PMIs are only one indicator of economic development, the BoE could nevertheless feel vindicated by today's figures to wait a few more months to see whether inflation really does return to target on a sustained basis. Especially since the seasonally adjusted monthly rates of change in the core rate were recently still at the upper end of the G10 spectrum and the BoE expects inflation to fall briefly to the target in the second quarter, but then rise again. 

As a result, today's figures – provided they are not significantly weaker than expected – could confirm market expectations of initial interest rate cuts from August onwards and thus keep the Pound somewhat supported.