NZD/USD: It is becoming harder to build a bullish Kiwi story – ANZ

The Kiwi rallied a touch following Fed Chair Powell’s post FOMC press conference. Economists at ANZ Bank analyze NZD outlook.

NZD no longer has carry in its corner

With no major local data for the remainder of the week, the focus remains on offshore events (especially the ECB meeting) and on longer term themes. Regarding the latter, it’s becoming harder to build a bullish NZD story, and perhaps stability is the best that might come. 

A stronger economy would warrant more hikes, increasing the risk of a hard landing, but equally a slowing economy could weigh on the Kiwi, especially as global policy tightening bites. 

With the Fed policy rate now on par with the OCR, the NZD no longer has carry in its corner either, but going the other way, oil and commodity prices are bouncing, so it’s all very mixed.