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5 Sep 2014
EUR/USD forecast update: 1.27 by month-end - Nomura
FXStreet (Bali) - Nomura has updated its forecast for EURUSD, now expecting 1.27 by end of September.
Key Quotes
"We are revising our near-term EURUSD end-September forecast to 1.27 and projecting more stability in Q4. In 2015, we expect the downtrend in EURUSD to resume as monetary policy continues to diverge between the ECB and the Fed. In particular, the debate should shift away from the timing of Fed hikes to a debate about the pace of Fed tightening in 2015, and eventually the terminal rate."
"Meanwhile, Eurozone interest rates are set to remain anchored at very low levels well into the future. As such, significant monetary policy divergence should be an ongoing theme. Hence, a target of 1.20 for EURUSD is realistic by mid-2015, assuming that the flows into Eurozone risk assets remain more normal (as opposed to the outsized inflows seen from mid-2013 to June 2014)."
Key Quotes
"We are revising our near-term EURUSD end-September forecast to 1.27 and projecting more stability in Q4. In 2015, we expect the downtrend in EURUSD to resume as monetary policy continues to diverge between the ECB and the Fed. In particular, the debate should shift away from the timing of Fed hikes to a debate about the pace of Fed tightening in 2015, and eventually the terminal rate."
"Meanwhile, Eurozone interest rates are set to remain anchored at very low levels well into the future. As such, significant monetary policy divergence should be an ongoing theme. Hence, a target of 1.20 for EURUSD is realistic by mid-2015, assuming that the flows into Eurozone risk assets remain more normal (as opposed to the outsized inflows seen from mid-2013 to June 2014)."