A more hawkish ECB than the Fed set to justify further EUR strength – Commerzbank

EUR/USD is trading above 1.06. Economists at Commerzbank expect the shared currency to gain further ground.

Lagarde may lecture us long and hard about real economic uncertainties

“Some observers are already writing that the ECB is more hawkish than the Fed. However, that would be a condition we haven't seen for a long time. In my perception, not since the summer of 2011. We may not be there yet.” 

“Lagarde may lecture us long and hard about real economic uncertainties, etc., implicitly adding distinctly dovish tones to her message. But at least it's going in the direction. If the Fed ends its rate hikes earlier than the ECB and when (later) the ECB will remain calm while the Fed prepares the markets for rate cuts, we'll have reached that point. Not yet, but the probability that it will be reached in the foreseeable future is increasing. This justifies further EUR strength. If not today, then later.”